Main output losses due to BVD based on the following source of loss:

The figure below illustrates the expected discounted losses due to BVDV infection per annum per cow for year 1 to 10 (average, minimum and maximum) given the values of the input sliders.

- Substantial variations (i.e. minimum and maximum) around the expected costs (i.e. average) have been predicted by the model. These variations are of importance because not only are there “expected” losses through an outbreak of BVD but that “the worst case scenario” (i.e. orange bars) might have serious financial implications for the business.
- These results suggest that even when there are some antibody positive (i.e. immune) animals in the herd, an outbreak can be costly and therefore the disease is certainly of economic importance at the farm level.)

The figures below illustrates the proportion of animals in the four modelled groups of susceptible, transient, immune and PI in each year for the number of simulations input. The minimum, average and maximum proportions are shown.

- These results represent a summary of different random simulations of the model given the parameters chosen by the user.
- A time step of one year was chosen in this model to reflect the management cycle of a beef herd. On this basis it takes one year for the PI to infect cows and a second year for the cows to give birth to the PI calves.